Wednesday, 2 August 2017

1868. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1868 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·63(±0)ºC and +0·17(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·43(±0)ºC and -0·03(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·17(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1868 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1868 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

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