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NOAA, January 1998. For land and ocean surfaces combined, the average global temperature of the calendar year 1907 is 0·50ºC below the average global temperature of 16·50ºC for the thirty calendar years from 1961 to 1990, such that the annual global temperature of 1907 is 16·00ºC, which is the lowest annual global temperature for any calendar year from 1900 to 1997.
NOAA, January 2017. For land and ocean surfaces combined, the average global temperature of the calendar year 2016 is 0·94ºC above the average global temperature of 13·9ºC for the one-hundred calendar years from 1901 to 2000, such that the annual global temperature of 2016 is 14·84ºC, which is the highest annual global temperature for any calendar year from 1880 to 2016.

Tuesday, 1 August 2017

1865. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1865 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·69(±0)ºC and +0·14(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·50(±0)ºC and -0·05(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·22(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1865 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1865 is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·22(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

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