Tuesday, 1 August 2017

1864. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1864 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·87(±0)ºC and -0·10(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·69(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·25(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1864 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1864 is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·25(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

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