Monday, 31 July 2017

1861. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1861 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·78(±0)ºC and -0·01(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·60(±0)ºC and -0·20(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1861 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1861 is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1860. Hadrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1860 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·68(±0)ºC and -0·01(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·53(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1860 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1860 is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1859. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1859 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·62(±0)ºC and +0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·12(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1859 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1859 is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1858. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1858 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·78(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·64(±0)ºC and -0·30(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·47(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1858 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1858 is between -0·47(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1857. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1857 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·76(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·63(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1857 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1857 is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1856. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1856 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·67(±0)ºC and -0·06(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·54(±0)ºC and -0·18(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·26(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1856 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1856 is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·26(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1855. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1855 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·57(±0)ºC and +0·03(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·45(±0)ºC and -0·09(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1855 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1855 is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

Sunday, 30 July 2017

1854 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1853 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·25(±0)ºC more than, and 0·34(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·51(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·56(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year X were 10(±0)ºC more than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Y, and if Peter were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year X were between 1(±0)ºC and 2(±0) less than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Y, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year Y were 10(±0)ºC less than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Z, and if Paul were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year Y were between 1(±0)ºC and 2(±0) more than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Z, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is neither 10(±0)ºC more than, nor 10(±0)ºC less than, the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 1854, and if Mary were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·56(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854, then Mary’s guess is between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1853 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1853 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·29(±0)ºC more than, and 0·34(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·10(±0)ºC more than, and 0·51(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·04(±0)ºC more than, and 0·55(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1852 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1852 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·26(±0)ºC more than, and 0·28(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·47(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·54(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1851 vs 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1851 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·26(±0)ºC more than, and 0·27(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·46(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·09(±0)ºC more than, and 0·52(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1850 vs 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of  the calendar years 2010 and 1850 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·42(±0)ºC more than, and 0·41(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·22(±0)ºC more than, and 0·60(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·16(±0)ºC more than, and 0·49(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.     

1877 and 1973.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land of the calendar years 1877 and 1973 as per CruTem4 version 4·0·0·0 .

1st claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·139(±0)ºC more than and 0·888(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.
2nd claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·536(±0)ºC more than and 1·310(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.
3rd claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·168(±0)ºC more than and 0·608(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.

The annual series entails the 1st claim. The monthly series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Smoothing the annual series with a 21-point binomial filter does not necessarily produce false results. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.   

Saturday, 29 July 2017

1973.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1973 as per CruTem4 version 4·0·0·0 .

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·256(±0)ºC and +0·026(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·378(±0)ºC and -0·095(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·050(±0)ºC and -0·204(±0)ºC.

The annual series entails the 1st claim. The monthly series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1877.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1877 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·162(±0)ºC and -0·632(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·441(±0)ºC and -0·932(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·036(±0)ºC and -0·658(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

1974.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1974 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·173(±0)ºC and -0·399(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·050(±0)ºC and -0·522(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·046(±0)ºC and -0·200(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -32(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s PºC, such that PºC is somewhere in between -22(±0)ºC and -12(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 10(±0)ºC and 20(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +32(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s QºC, such that QºC is somewhere in between +22(±0)ºC and +12(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 10(±0)ºC and 20(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1974 were neither -32(±0)ºC nor +32(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s RºC, such that RºC is somewhere in between -0·046(±0)ºC and -0·200(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too high, or too low?

1876.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1876 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·036(±0)ºC and -0·834(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·245(±0)ºC and -1·135(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·071(±0)ºC and -0·690(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -31(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s PºC, such that PºC is somewhere in between -21(±0)ºC and -11(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 10(±0)ºC and 20(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +31(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s QºC, such that QºC is somewhere in between +21(±0)ºC and +11(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 10(±0)ºC and 20(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1876 were neither -31(±0)ºC nor +31(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s RºC, such that RºC is somewhere in between -0·071(±0)ºC and -0·690(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between {what number?(±0) and what number?(±0) of degrees centigrade} too high, or too low?

1975.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1975 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·056(±0)ºC and -0·173(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·180(±0)ºC and -0·297(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·035(±0)ºC and -0·188(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -30(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s PºC, such that PºC is somewhere in between -20(±0)ºC and -15(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 10(±0)ºC and 15(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +30(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s QºC, such that QºC is somewhere in between +25(±0)ºC and +20(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 5(±0)ºC and 10(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1975 were neither -30(±0)ºC nor +30(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s RºC, such that RºC is somewhere in between -0·035(±0)ºC and -0·188(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between {what number?(±0) and what number?(±0) of degrees centigrade} too high, or too low?

1875.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1875 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·405(±0)ºC and -1·230(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·118(±0)ºC and -1·535(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·099(±0)ºC and -0·714(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -29(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s PºC, such that PºC is somewhere in between -28(±0)ºC and -26(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 3(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +29(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s QºC, such that QºC is somewhere in between +28(±0)ºC and +26(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 3(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1875 were neither -29(±0)ºC nor +29(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s RºC, such that RºC is somewhere in between -0·099(±0)ºC and -0·714(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between {what number?(±0) and what number?(±0) of degrees centigrade} too high, or too low?

1976.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1976 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·242(±0)ºC and -0·470(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·117(±0)ºC and -0·595(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·012(±0)ºC and -0·163(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -28(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s PºC, such that PºC is somewhere in between -27(±0)ºC and -25(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 3(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +28(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s QºC, such that QºC is somewhere in between +27(±0)ºC and +25(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 3(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1976 were neither -28(±0)ºC nor +28(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s RºC, such that RºC is somewhere in between -0·012(±0)ºC and -0·163(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

Friday, 28 July 2017

1874.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1874 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·007(±0)ºC and -0·826(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·326(±0)ºC and -1·164(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·109(±0)ºC and -0·721(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -27(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s somewhere in between -26(±0)ºC and -23(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 4(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +27(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s somewhere in between +26(±0)ºC and +23(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 1(±0)ºC and 4(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1874 were neither -27(±0)ºC nor +27(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s somewhere in between -0·109(±0)ºC and -0·721(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere in between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1977.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1977 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·198(±0)ºC and -0·024(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·324(±0)ºC and -0·151(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·026(±0)ºC and -0·125(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -26(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for X is somewhere between +11(±0)ºC and -11(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 37(±0)ºC and 15(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +26(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for Y is somewhere between +11(±0)ºC and -11(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 15(±0)ºC and 37(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1977 were neither -26(±0)ºC nor +26(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1977 is somewhere between +0·026(±0)ºC and -0·125(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1873.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1873 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·112(±0)ºC and -0·722(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·431(±0)ºC and -1·060(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between -0·093(±0)ºC and -0·702(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year X were -25(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for X is somewhere between +0·112(±0)ºC and -0·722(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 25·112(±0)ºC and 24·728(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Y were +25(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for Y is somewhere between +0·431(±0)ºC and -1·060(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 24·569(±0)ºC and 26·060(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for year Z were neither -25(±0)ºC nor +25(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for Z is somewhere between -0·093(±0)ºC and -0·702(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1978.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1978 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·057(±0)ºC and -0·164(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·184(±0)ºC and -0·291(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere between +0·074(±0)ºC and -0·077(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.
Q-1. If 1978’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were -24(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s somewhere between +0·057(±0)ºC and -0·164(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be somewhere between 24·057(±0)ºC and 23·836(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If 1978’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were +24(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s somewhere between +0·184(±0)ºC and -0·291(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be somewhere between 23·816(±0)ºC and 24·291(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If 1978’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were neither -24(±0)ºC nor +24(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s somewhere between +0·074(±0)ºC and -0·077(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be somewhere between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1872.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1872 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between +0·180(±0)ºC and -0·665(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between +0·503(±0)ºC and -1·006(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between -0·093(±0)ºC and -0·072(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.
Q-1. If 1872’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were -23(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that it’s between +0·180(±0)ºC and -0·665(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 23·180(±0)ºC and 22·335(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If 1872’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were +23(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that it’s between +0·503(±0)ºC and -1·006(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 22·497(±0)ºC and 24·006(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If 1872’s global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were neither -23(±0)ºC nor +23(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that it’s between -0·093(±0)ºC and -0·072(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1979.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1979 as per CruTem4.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between +0·153(±0)ºC and -0·072(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between +0·281(±0)ºC and -0·200(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between -0·027(±0)ºC and -0·691(±0)ºC.

The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were -22(±0)ºC, then the 1st claim would be between 22·153(±0)ºC and 21·927(±0)ºC above the mark, would it not?
Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were +22(±0)ºC, then the 2nd claim would be between 21·719(±)ºC and 22·200(±0)ºC below the mark, would it not?
Q-3.  If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land were neither -22(±0)ºC nor +22(±0)ºC, then the 3rd claim would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC above, or below, the mark?

Thursday, 27 July 2017

1871.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1871 as per CruTem4. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between -0·144(±0)ºC and -1·003(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between +0·184(±0)ºC and -1·349(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is between -0·082(±0)ºC and -0·691(±0)ºC.

1980

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1980 as per CruTem4. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

First claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1980 is between {+0·252(±0)ºC and +0·023(±0)ºC}.
Second claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1980 is between {+0·380(±0)ºC and -0·105(±0)ºC}.
Third claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1980 is between {+0·167(±0)ºC and +0·013(±0)ºC}.

Question.
Which claim is closest to the mark, and how far away from the mark is it?

1870

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1870 as per CruTem4. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

First claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 is between {-0·022(±0)ºC and -0·876(±0)ºC}.
Second claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 is between {+0·315(±0)ºC and -1·232(±0)ºC}.
Third claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 is between {-0·073(±0)ºC and -0·683(±0)ºC}.

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 were +21(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {21·022(±0)ºC and 21·876(±0)ºC} below the mark, would it not?
Q-2.  If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 were -21(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {21·315(±0)ºC and 19·678(±0)ºC} above the mark, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1870 were neither +21(±0)ºC nor -21(±0), then the third claim would be between {(what number?)ºC and (what number?)ºC} above, or below, the mark? 

1981.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1981 as per CruTem4. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, entails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

First claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 is between {+0·442(±0)ºC and +0·202(±0)ºC}.
Second claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 is between {+0·569(±0)ºC and +0·075(±0)ºC}.
Third claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 is between {+0·193(±0)ºC and +0·037(±0)ºC}.

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 were -20(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {20·442(±0)ºC and 20·202(±0)ºC} above the mark, would it not?
Q-2.  If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 were +20(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {19·431(±0)ºC and 19·925(±0)ºC} below the mark, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1981 were neither -20(±0)ºC nor +20(±0), then the third claim would be between {(what number?)ºC and (what number?)ºC} above, or below, the mark? 

1869.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1869 as per CruTem4. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the first claim. The monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 entails the second claim. The annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 smoothed with a 21-point binomial filterentails the third claim. Alternative link for CruTem version 4·0·0·0.

First claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 is between {+0·118(±0)ºC and -0·711(±0)ºC}.
Second claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 is between {+0·555(±0)ºC and -1·096(±0)ºC}.
Third claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 is between {+0·068(±0)ºC and -0·679(±0)ºC}.

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 were -19(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {19·118(±0)ºC and 18·289(±0)ºC} too high, would it not?
Q-2.  If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 were +19(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {18·445(±0)ºC and 20·096(±0)ºC} too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1869 were neither -19(±0)ºC nor +19(±0), then the third claim would be between {(what number?)ºC and (what number?)ºC} too high, or too low? 

Wednesday, 26 July 2017

1982.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1982 as per CruTem4.

The first claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0:- The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 is between +0·113(±0)ºC and -0·123(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The second claim is as per the monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0:- The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 is between +0·244(±0)ºC and -0·253(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The third claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter”:- The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 is between +0·203(±0)ºC and +0·044(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

Questions.
Q-1. If the the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 were -18(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {18·113(±0)ºC and 17·877(±0)ºC} too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 were +18(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {17·756(±0)ºC and 18·253(±0)ºC} too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1982 were neither -18(±0)ºC nor +18(±0)ºC, then the third claim would be between {(what number?±0)ºC and (what number?±0)ºC} too high, or too low?

1868.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1868 as per CruTem4.

The first claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
First claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 is between +0·153(±0)ºC and -0·743(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The second claim is as per the monthly series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
Second claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 is between +0·519(±0)ºC and -1·137(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The third claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter”.
Third claim.  The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 is between -0·069(±0)ºC and -0·680(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

Questions.
Q-1. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 were -17(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {17·153(±0)ºC and 16·257(±0)ºC} too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 were +17(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {16·481(±0)ºC and 18·137(±0)ºC} too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1868 were neither -17(±0)ºC nor +17(±0)ºC, then the third claim would be between {(what number?±0)ºC and (what number?±0)ºC} too high, or too low?

1983.

Two claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1983 as per CruTem4.

The first claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
First claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1983 is between +0·450(±0)ºC and +0·213(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The second claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter”.
Second claim.  The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1983 is between +0·202(±0)ºC and +0·041(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

Questions.
Q-1. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1983 were -16(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {16·450(±0)ºC and 16·213(±0)ºC} above the true value of {-16(±0)ºC} for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of 1983, would it not?
Q-2. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1983 were +16(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {15·550(±0)ºC and 15·787(±0)ºC} below the true value of {+16(±0)ºC} for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of 1983, would it not?
Q-3. If the true value of the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1983 were neither -16(±0)ºC nor +16(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {(what number?±0)ºC and (what number?±0)ºC} above, or below, the true value of {(what number?±0)ºC}for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of 1983?

1867.

Two claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1867 as per CruTem4.

The first claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
First claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1867 is between -0·038(±0)ºC and -0·956(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The second claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0 smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter”.
Second claim.  The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1867 is between -0·078(±0)ºC and -0·689(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1867 were +15(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {15·038(±0)ºC and 15·956(±0)ºC} too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1867 were -15(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {14·962(±0)ºC and 14·044(±0)ºC} too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1867 were neither +15(±0)ºC nor -15(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {(what number?±0)ºC and (what number?±0)ºC} too low, or too high?

1984.

Two claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1984 as per CruTem4.

The first claim is as per the annual series of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
First claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1984 is between +0·071(±0)ºC and -0·165(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

The second claim is as per the annual series, smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter, of CruTem version 4·0·0·0.
Second claim.  The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1984 is between +0·203(±0)ºC and +0·040(±0)ºC.
Data file (in this format).

Questions.
Q-1. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1984 were -14(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {14·071(±0)ºC and 13·835(±0)ºC} too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1984 were +14(±0)ºC, then the first claim would be between {13·929(±0)ºC and 14·165(±0)ºC} too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1866 were neither -14(±0)ºC nor +14(±0)ºC, then the second claim would be between {(what number?)ºC and (what number?)ºC} too high, or too low?