Monday, 21 August 2017

August 2016 to July 2017.

Average global temperatures for land and ocean surfaces combined, according to NOAA.

August 2016, 16·52ºC.
The average global temperature of August 2016 is 0·92ºC higher than the average global temperature of 15·6ºC for the one-hundred Augusts from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of August 2016 is 16·52ºC.
September 2016, 15·89ºC.
The average global temperature of September 2016 is 0·89ºC higher than the average global temperature of 15·0ºC for the one-hundred Septembers from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of September 2016 is 15·89ºC.
October 2016, 14·73ºC.
The average global temperature of October 2016 is 0·73ºC higher than the average global temperature of 14·0ºC for the one-hundred Octobers from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of October 2016 is 14·73ºC.
November 2016, 13·63ºC.
The average global temperature of November 2016 is 0·73ºC higher than the average global temperature of 12·9ºC for the one-hundred Novembers from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of November 2016 is 13·63ºC.
December 2016, 12·99ºC.
The average global temperature of December 2016 is 0·79ºC higher than the average global temperature of 12·2ºC for the one-hundred Decembers from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of December 2016 is 12·99ºC.
January 2017, 12·88ºC.
The average global temperature of January 2017 is 0·88ºC higher than the average global temperature of 12·0ºC for the one-hundred Januarys from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of January 2017 is 12·88ºC.
February 2017, 13·08ºC.
The average global temperature of February 2017 is 0·98ºC higher than the average global temperature of 12·1ºC for the one-hundred Februarys from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of February 2017 is 13·08ºC.
March 2017, 13·75ºC.
The average global temperature of March 2017 is 1·05ºC higher than the average global temperature of 12·7ºC for the one-hundred Marches from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of March 2017 is 13·75ºC.
April 2017, 14·60ºC.
The average global temperature of April 2017 is 0·90ºC higher than the average global temperature of 13·7ºC for the one-hundred Aprils from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of April 2017 is 14·60ºC.
May 2017, 15·63ºC.
The average global temperature of May 2017 is 0·83ºC higher than the average global temperature of 14·8ºC for the one-hundred Mays from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of May 2017 is 15·63ºC.
June 2017, 16·32ºC.
The average global temperature of June 2017 is 0·82ºC higher than the average global temperature of 15·5ºC for the one-hundred Junes from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of June 2017 is 16·32ºC.
July 2017, 16·63ºC.
The average global temperature of July 2017 is 0·83ºC higher than the average global temperature of 15·8ºC for the one-hundred Julys from 1901 to 2000, such that the average global temperature of July 2017 is 16·63ºC.
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August 2016 to July 2017, 14·72ºC.
The average global temperature of the twelve-months from August 2016 to July 2017 is 14·72ºC, which is 1·78ºC less than the average global temperature of 16·5ºC for the thirty calendar years from 1961 to 1990.
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Sunday, 13 August 2017

Julys, Armagh, 1867 to 2017.

Average surface air temperatures for July at Armagh, 1867 to 2017.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-historic/#?tab=climateHistoric
Interval.......................Temperature ºC.
1867-1877..................16·4.....................Highest.
1877-1887..................14·7
1887-1897..................14·3.....................Lowest
1897-1907..................15·0
1907-1917..................14·6
1917-1927..................14·8
1927-1937..................15·2
1937-1947..................14·9
1947-1957..................15·1
1957-1967..................14·7
1967-1977..................15·3
1977-1987..................15·4
1987-1997..................15·7
1997-2007..................15.7
2007-2017..................15·0
1867-2017..................15·1

“The Armagh Observatory, founded in 1789 by Archbishop Richard Robinson, is a modern scientific research institute with a rich heritage. Around 25 astronomers are researching Solar-System Astronomy, Solar Physics, Stellar and Galactic Astrophysics, and Solar System Earth relationships. It maintains the longest daily climate series in the UK and Ireland (see http://climate.arm.ac.uk/), and one of the longest from a single site in the world.”.
https://discovernorthernireland.com/Armagh-Observatory-Armagh-P3286/

Thursday, 10 August 2017

1904. HadCrut4.

Four claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1904, which is between:- 

-0·663(±0)ºC  and  -0·393(±0)ºC”.................Claim #1. 
-0·663(±0)ºC  and  -0·394(±0)ºC”.................Claim #2. 
-0·664(±0)ºC  and  -0·395(±0)ºC”.................Claim #3.
-0·661(±0)ºC  and  -0·392(±0)ºC”.................Claim #4.

Claim #1. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·1·1·0, 1850→2013.
Claim #2. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·2·0·0, 1850→2014.
Claim #3. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·3·0·0, 1850→2015.
Claim #4. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·4·0·0, 1850→2016.

1903. HadCrut4.

Four claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1903, which is between:- 

-0·618(±0)ºC  and  -0·348(±0)ºC”.................Claim #1. 
-0·618(±0)ºC  and  -0·349(±0)ºC”.................Claim #2. 
-0·620(±0)ºC  and  -0·350(±0)ºC”.................Claim #3.
-0·622(±0)ºC  and  -0·353(±0)ºC”.................Claim #4.

Claim #1. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·1·1·0, 1850→2013.
Claim #2. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·2·0·0, 1850→2014.
Claim #3. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·3·0·0, 1850→2015.
Claim #4. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·4·0·0, 1850→2016.

1902. HadCrut4.

Four claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1902, which is between:- 

-0·548(±0)ºC  and  -0·280(±0)ºC”.................Claim #1. 
-0·547(±0)ºC  and  -0·279(±0)ºC”.................Claim #2. 
-0·548(±0)ºC  and  -0·280(±0)ºC”.................Claim #3.
-0·542(±0)ºC  and  -0·275(±0)ºC”.................Claim #4.

Claim #1. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·1·1·0, 1850→2013.
Claim #2. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·2·0·0, 1850→2014.
Claim #3. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·3·0·0, 1850→2015.
Claim #4. As per the annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·4·0·0, 1850→2016.

Wednesday, 9 August 2017

1901. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1901, which is between:- 

-0·51(±0)ºC and  -0·03(±0)ºC”.................Claim #1. 
-0·42(±0)ºC and  -0·13(±0)ºC”.................Claim #2. 
-0·42(±0)ºC and  -0·27(±0)ºC”.................Claim #3.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claim #1. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claim #2. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claim #3. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1900. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1900, which is between:- 

-0·45(±0)ºC and +0·05(±0)ºC”.................Claim #1. 
-0·34(±0)ºC and  -0·06(±0)ºC”.................Claim #2. 
-0·38(±0)ºC and  -0·23(±0)ºC”.................Claim #3.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claim #1. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claim #2. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claim #3. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the upper and lower limits of the global historical surface temperature anomaly of any interval depend on the method of their calculation, then in what sense are these limits real entities?

1899. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1899, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·53ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·43ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·38ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·05ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·15ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·23ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the numerical value of the global historical surface temperature anomaly for any interval depends on the method of its calculation, then what is a global historical surface temperature anomaly, apart from a mathematical fiction?

Tuesday, 8 August 2017

1898. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1898, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·65ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·55ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·38ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·16ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·27ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·22ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the numerical value of the global historical surface temperature anomaly for any interval depends on the method of its calculation, then what is a global historical surface temperature anomaly, apart from a mathematical fiction?

1897. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1897, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·46ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·35ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·39ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, +0·04ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·07ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·23ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the numerical value of the global historical surface temperature anomaly for any interval depends on the method of its calculation, then what is a global historical surface temperature anomaly, apart from a mathematical fiction?

1896. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1896, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·44ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·33ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than,  -0·40ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, +0·06ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·05ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than,  -0·25ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the numerical value of the global historical surface temperature anomaly for any interval depends on the method of its calculation, then what is a global historical surface temperature anomaly, apart from a mathematical fiction?

1895. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1895, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·65ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·53ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·43ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·14ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·26ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·27ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question. If the numerical value of the global historical surface temperature anomaly for any interval depends on the method of its calculation, then what is a global historical surface temperature anomaly, apart from a mathematical fiction?

1894. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1894, which:- 

Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·66ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·55ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·45ºC................Claim #3.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·15ºC..............Claim #4.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·27ºC..............Claim #5.
Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·30ºC..............Claim #6.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1893. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1893, which:- 

Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·73ºC................Claim #1. 
Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·62ºC................Claim #2. 
Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·46ºC................Claim #3 
Could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·22ºC..............Claim #4 
Could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·33ºC..............Claim #5 
Could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·31ºC..............Claim #6

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #1 and #4. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails claims #2 and #5. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails claims #3 and #6. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

Monday, 7 August 2017

1892. HadCrut4.

Six claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1892, which:-

1st claim.  “Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·72ºC.
2nd claim. Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·60ºC.
3rd claim. Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·46ºC.
4th claim. Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·20ºC.
5th claim. Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·32ºC.
6th claim. Could be as high as, but is no higher than, -0·31ºC.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st and 4th claims. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd and 5th claims. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd and 6th claims. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1891. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1891, which:-

1st claim.  “Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·60ºC, or as high as, but is no higher than, -0·08ºC.
2nd claim. Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·48ºC, or as high as, but is no higher than, -0·20ºC.
3rd claim. Could be as low as, but is no lower than, -0·45ºC, or as high as, but is no higher than, -0·30ºC.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1890. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1890, which:-

1st claim.  “Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·66ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, -0·16ºC.
2nd claim. Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·55ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, -0·28ºC.
3rd claim. Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·43ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, -0·28ºC.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1889. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1889, which:-

1st claim.  “Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·43ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, +0·07ºC.
2nd claim. Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·32ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, -0·04ºC.
3rd claim. Could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·42ºC, or as high as, but no higher than, -0·27ºC.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

Sunday, 6 August 2017

1888. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1888:-

1st claim.  “It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·55ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·06ºC.
2nd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·44ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·17ºC.
3rd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·41ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·27ºC.

The monthly series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1887. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1887:-

1st claim.  “It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·65ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·17ºC.
2nd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·54ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·28ºC.
3rd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·41ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·27ºC.

The monthly series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series  of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question: The anomaly for 1887 could be as low as, but no lower than, (what number ? of degrees centigrade), or it could be as high as, but no higher than, (what number ? of degrees centigrade)? 

1886. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1886:-

1st claim.  “It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·60ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·12ºC.
2nd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·49ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·22ºC.
3rd claim. It could be as low as, but no lower than, -0·41ºC, or it could be as high as, but no higher than, -0·27ºC.

The monthly series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series  of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question: The anomaly for 1886 could be as low as, but no lower than (what number ? of degrees centigrade), or it could be as high as, but no higher than, (what number ? of degrees centigrade)? 

1885. HadCrut4

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1885:-

1st claim.  “The anomaly is between -0·61(±0)ºC and -0·14(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The anomaly is between -0·51(±0)ºC and -0·24(±0)ºC..
3rd claim.  The anomaly is between -0·40(±0)ºC and -0·26(±0)ºC..

The monthly series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 1st claim. The annual series  of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0 entails the 2nd claim. The annual series of  HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0. Question: The anomaly for 1885 is between {(what number of degrees centigrade?(±0ºC)} and {(what number of degrees centigrade?(±0ºC)}?. 

1884. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1884 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  “The anomaly is -0·390(±0·240)ºC.
2nd claim. The anomaly is -0·395(±0·135)ºC.
3rd claim.  The anomaly is -0·315(±0·075)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. Question: The anomaly for 1884 is what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?))). 

1883. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1883 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  “The anomaly is -0·280(±0·240)ºC.
2nd claim. The anomaly is -0·275(±0·135)ºC.
3rd claim.  The anomaly is -0·285(±0·075)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. The anomaly for 1883 is:- what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?(± what number of degrees centigrade?)))  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Saturday, 5 August 2017

1882. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1882 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  “The anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and +0·06(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The anomaly is between -0·35(±0)ºC and -0·05(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The anomaly is between -0·30(±0)ºC and -0·15(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1881. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the global historical surface temperature anomaly of the January-to-December calendar year 1881 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  “The anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and +0·06(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The anomaly is between -0·35(±0)ºC and -0·05(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The anomaly is between -0·30(±0)ºC and -0·15(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series decadally smoothed by the application of a 21 point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Friday, 4 August 2017

1880. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1880 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·51(±0)ºC and +0·03(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·37(±0)ºC and -0·07(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·28(±0)ºC and -0·12(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1878 and 1879. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1878 and 1879 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1878 is between A and B.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1878 is between C and D.
3rd claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1878 is between E and F.

A = 0·82(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.
B = 0·29(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.
C = 0·56(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.
D = 0·04(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.
E = 0·16(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.
F = 0·17(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1879.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

1877 & 1878. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1877 and 1878 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1877 is between A and B.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1877 is between C and D.
3rd claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1877 is between E and F.

A = 0·46(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.
B = 0·69(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.
C = 0·20(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.
D = 0·42(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.
E = 0·14(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.
F = 0·19(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1878.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

1876 and 1877. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1876 and 1877 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1876 is between A and B.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1876 is between C and D.
3rd claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1876 is between E and F.

A = 0·29(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.
B = 0·89(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.
C = 0·01(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.
D = 0·61(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.
E = 0·13(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.
F = 0·20(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1877.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

1875 and 1876. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1875 and 1876 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1875 is between A and B.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1875 is between C and D.
3rd claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1875 is between E and F.

A = 0·57(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.
B = 0·62(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.
C = 0·29(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.
D = 0·34(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.
E = 0·13(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.
F = 0·19(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1876.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

1874 vs 1875.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1874 and 1875 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1874 is between A and B.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1874 is between C and D.
3rd claim.   The global temperature anomaly of 1874 is between E and F.

A = 0·64(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.
B = 0·58(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.
C = 0·35(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.
D = 0·29(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.
E = 0·15(±0)ºC more than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.
F = 0·18(±0)ºC less than the global temperature anomaly of 1875.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

Thursday, 3 August 2017

1873 vs 1874. Hadcrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the January-to-December calendar years 1873 and 1874 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1873 is between {0·70(±0)ºC more than} and {0·55(±0)ºC less than} the global temperature anomaly of 1874.
2nd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1873 is between {0·40(±0)ºC more than} and {0·25(±0)ºC less than} the global temperature anomaly of 1874.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly of 1873 is between {0·16(±0)ºC more than} and {0·18(±0)ºC less than} the global temperature anomaly of 1874.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0. 

1874. Hadrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1874 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·68(±0)ºC and -0·06(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·53(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·38(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1873. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1873 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·61(±0)ºC and +0·02(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·13(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·22(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are true? Which claims are false? Which claims are neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1872. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1872 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·54(±0)ºC and +0·01(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·05(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·38(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are (a) true, and (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1871. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1871 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·67(±0)ºC and +0·02(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·50(±0)ºC and -0·15(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·38(±0)ºC and -0·19(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are (a) true, and (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1870. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1870 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·60(±0)ºC and +0·05(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·10(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·37(±0)ºC and -0·18(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1870 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1870 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

1869. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1869 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·63(±0)ºC and +0·10(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·07(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·38(±0)ºC and -0·17(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1869 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1869 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1868. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1868 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·63(±0)ºC and +0·17(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·43(±0)ºC and -0·03(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·17(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1868 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1868 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1867. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1867 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·71(±0)ºC and +0·09(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·52(±0)ºC and -0·10(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·40(±0)ºC and -0·18(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1867 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1867 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

1866. HadCrut4

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1866 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·64(±0)ºC and +0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·45(±0)ºC and -0·03(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·42(±0)ºC and -0·20(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions
Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly for interval X were -10ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval X is between (+0(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC,  then Peter’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too high, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of interval Y were +10ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of interval Y is between (-0(±0))ºC and (-1(±0))ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between (10(±0))ºC and (11(±0))ºC too low, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly for 1866 were neither -10ºC nor +10ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly for 1866 is between  (-1(±0))ºC and (+1(±0))ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?(±0))ºC and (what number?(±0))ºC too high, or too low?

Tuesday, 1 August 2017

1865. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1865 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·69(±0)ºC and +0·14(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·50(±0)ºC and -0·05(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·22(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1865 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1865 is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·22(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1864. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1864 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·87(±0)ºC and -0·10(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·69(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·25(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1864 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1864 is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·25(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1863. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1863 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·69(±0)ºC and +0·12(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·50(±0)ºC and -0·07(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·27(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Which claims are (a) true, and (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false?  Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1862. HadCrut4

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1862 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·91(±0)ºC and -0·11(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·72(±0)ºC and -0·30(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1862 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1862 is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

Monday, 31 July 2017

1861. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1861 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·78(±0)ºC and -0·01(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·60(±0)ºC and -0·20(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1861 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1861 is between -0·49(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1860. Hadrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1860 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·68(±0)ºC and -0·01(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·53(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1860 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1860 is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1859. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1859 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·62(±0)ºC and +0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·12(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1859 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1859 is between -0·48(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1858. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1858 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·78(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·64(±0)ºC and -0·30(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·47(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1858 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1858 is between -0·47(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1857. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1857 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·76(±0)ºC and -0·16(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·63(±0)ºC and -0·29(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1857 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1857 is between -0·46(±0)ºC and -0·28(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1856. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1856 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·67(±0)ºC and -0·06(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·54(±0)ºC and -0·18(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·26(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1856 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1856 is between -0·44(±0)ºC and -0·26(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1855. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomaly” of the January-to-December calendar year 1855 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·57(±0)ºC and +0·03(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. The global temperature anomaly is between -0·45(±0)ºC and -0·09(±0)ºC.
3rd claim.  The global temperature anomaly is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global temperature anomaly of  the year X were +10(±0)ºC, and if Peter were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year X is between -1(±0)ºC and -2(±0)ºC, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?
Q-2. If the global temperature anomaly of year the Y were -10(±0)ºC, and if Paul were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year Y is between +1(±0)ºC and +2(±0)ºC, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?
Q-3. If the global temperature anomaly of the year 1855 were neither +10(±0)ºC nor -10(±0)ºC, and if Mary were to guess, that the global temperature anomaly of the year 1855 is between -0·39(±0)ºC and -0·21(±0)ºC, then Mary’s guess would be between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

Sunday, 30 July 2017

1854 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1853 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·25(±0)ºC more than, and 0·34(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·51(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·56(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

Questions.

Q-1. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year X were 10(±0)ºC more than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Y, and if Peter were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year X were between 1(±0)ºC and 2(±0) less than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Y, then Peter’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too low, would it not?

Q-2. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year Y were 10(±0)ºC less than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Z, and if Paul were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of year Y were between 1(±0)ºC and 2(±0) more than the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of year Z, then Paul’s guess would be between 11(±0)ºC and 12(±0)ºC too high, would it not?

Q-3. If the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is neither 10(±0)ºC more than, nor 10(±0)ºC less than, the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 1854, and if Mary were to guess, that the global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·56(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1854, then Mary’s guess is between (what number?)(±0)ºC and (what number?)(±0)ºC too low, or too high? 

1853 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1853 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·29(±0)ºC more than, and 0·34(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·10(±0)ºC more than, and 0·51(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·04(±0)ºC more than, and 0·55(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1853.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1852 & 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1852 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·26(±0)ºC more than, and 0·28(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·47(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·05(±0)ºC more than, and 0·54(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1852.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1851 vs 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of the calendar years 2010 and 1851 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·26(±0)ºC more than, and 0·27(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·06(±0)ºC more than, and 0·46(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·09(±0)ºC more than, and 0·52(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1851.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. Calculating annual global historical surface temperature anomalies from the monthly series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?  DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it? Which of the three claims are (a) true, (b) false, and (c) neither true nor false? Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.

1850 vs 2010. HadCrut4.

Three claims for the “global historical surface temperature anomalies” of  the calendar years 2010 and 1850 as per HadCrut4 version 4·0·0·0.

1st claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·42(±0)ºC more than, and 0·41(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.
2nd claim. The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·22(±0)ºC more than, and 0·60(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.
3rd claim.  The global historical surface temperature anomaly of 2010 is somewhere in between 1·16(±0)ºC more than, and 0·49(±0)ºC more than, the ‘global historical surface temperature anomaly’ of 1850.

The monthly series entails the 1st claim. The annual series entails the 2nd claim. The “decadally smoothed” annual series entails the 3rd claim. DecadallySmoothing the annual series does not necessarily produce false results, or does it?. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.     

1877 and 1973.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomalies over land of the calendar years 1877 and 1973 as per CruTem4 version 4·0·0·0 .

1st claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·139(±0)ºC more than and 0·888(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.
2nd claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·536(±0)ºC more than and 1·310(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.
3rd claim. The global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1877 is somewhere in between 0·168(±0)ºC more than and 0·608(±0)ºC less than the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land for 1973.

The annual series entails the 1st claim. The monthly series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Smoothing the annual series with a 21-point binomial filter does not necessarily produce false results. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.   

Saturday, 29 July 2017

1973.

Three claims for the global historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land of the calendar year 1973 as per CruTem4 version 4·0·0·0 .

1st claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·256(±0)ºC and +0·026(±0)ºC.
2nd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between +0·378(±0)ºC and -0·095(±0)ºC.
3rd claim. Theglobal historical near-surface air temperature anomaly over land is somewhere in between -0·050(±0)ºC and -0·204(±0)ºC.

The annual series entails the 1st claim. The monthly series entails the 2nd claim. The annual series smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter entails the 3rd claim. Alternative link for version 4·0·0·0.